As COVID-19 lockdowns took effect worldwide in 2020, economists like Nobel prizewinner Joseph Stieglitz predicted that the pandemic would unleash armies of job-killing robots that would exacerbate inequality.1 They anticipated that low-skilled employees would be put out of work by robots that do not get sick or need to isolate and socially distance.
In reality, the picture is more nuanced. While automation has accelerated, many parts of the world are facing a worsening labor shortage instead of a jobs apocalypse. And rather than displacing workers, technologies such as attended automation are increasing their productivity, especially mid-skilled employees.
Predictions of mass job losses to automation versus a reality of unfilled jobs
Start with the predictions. Stieglitz co-authored a paper about the "shadow cost" of the pandemic on labor, claiming this is "accelerating the development and adoption of new technologies to automate human work". In a congressional testimony from September 2020, a leading AI researcher, Daron Acemoglu of MIT, warned that "the US economy – and US workers – are suffering from what I view as excessive automation".2
The IMF analyzed previous pandemics’ impact on industrial robot adoption and cautioned that masses of jobs were at risk.3 The IMF concluded that "robot adoption increases after a pandemic event, especially when the health impact is severe and when the pandemic is associated with a significant economic downturn… COVID-19 pandemic added fuel to the fire… if the pandemic accelerates the pace of automation, then we may face a jobless recovery for low-skilled workers".
When we look at what has actually happened, fears of widespread job losses would appear to be misplaced, at this point in time. Instead, there are 9.2 million unfilled vacancies in the US, the highest number ever.4 A record-breaking 4.3 million Americans quit their jobs in August - the highest level since data tracking started in 2000, and the sixth consecutive month of sky-high quitting rates.5 The picture seems similar in other countries. As McKinsey research found
"the Great Attrition is happening, it’s widespread and likely to persist—if not accelerate—and many companies don’t understand what’s really going on".6
Contact centers seem particularly hard hit. Call center outsourcing firms are reporting that training class show rates are down to 40%-50%, some as low as 20%, according to CustomerServ.7
Unattended automation of routine jobs; attended automation for routine tasks
It may be that this labor shortage is a temporary mismatch of demand and supply. However, in many roles, especially those that are customer-facing, the human workforce is becoming more rather than less important. Perhaps, rather than worrying about the loss of ‘routine’ jobs, we should shift the automation versus jobs discussion to a conversation about from comparing "routine" vs "non-routine" jobs, to "routine" vs. "non-routine" tasks.
Routine jobs involve patterns which are easier for robots to learn. They can be completely automated using unattended automation. Data entry, for example, can be fully automated using software robots, thus decreasing the need for employees to carry out the work. Routine jobs as a share of the total, have slowly declined over the past 10 years.8
Attended automation removes routine tasks
Attended automation robots listen to desktop activity, understand what is going on, and intervene at the right moment to save time, reduce errors and provide guidance to help the employee with their daily tasks. This is about the complex, interactive relationship between humans and algorithms for the benefit of customers.
Most attended automation use cases reside within the enterprise’s contact center. Desktop robots assist and augment mid-skilled workers, taking over the admin-driven tasks and freeing contact center agents to focus on what humans do best – problem solving and empathy. Moreover, it relieves human workers from tedious and repetitive tasks, helping to create a more engaging work experience, be more productive, and meet their KPIs.
In line with Stieglitz’s view of technological progress, attended automation increases the productivity of workers—making them able to produce more per hour—rather than replacing labor with robots. It can become the "deliberate effort to steer technological advances in a direction that enhances the role of human workers".
As the Attended Automation leader and the most experienced automation vendor in the market, NICE focuses on the ethical and transparent deployment of robotic workers that help humans do more. We would welcome an opportunity to discuss how we can help your organization to deliver better customer experiences while improving employee engagement and productivity. Contact us to learn more.
REFERENCES
- https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n367
- https://www.congress.gov/116/meeting/house/111002/witnesses/HHRG-116-BU00-Wstate-AcemogluD-20200910.pdf
- https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2021/01/15/Pandemics-and-Automation-Will-the-Lost-Jobs-Come-Back-50000
- https://www.reuters.com/world/us/half-us-small-businesses-have-unfilled-job-openings-nfib-2021-09-02/
- https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm
- https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/people-and-organizational-performance/our-insights/great-attrition-or-great-attraction-the-choice-is-yours
- https://www.customerserv.com/blog/where-are-all-the-u.s.-call-center-workers
- https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/06/19/is-the-pandemic-accelerating-automation-dont-be-so-sure
